Development Rate of Tight Ends
The tight end position has massively transformed in the NFL over the last 10-15 years. Players such as Tony Gonzalez revolutionized the position by revealing the potential as a new type of offensive weapon. The rate at which teams started utilizing their young tight ends has also changed. Where it used to take multiple years before the majority of rookie and young tight ends to even see the field, we are now seeing these players as viable fantasy options much earlier on.
The 2 Year Mark
We charted out the fantasy production of some of the top tight ends over the last 10 years. Even though these are some of the top players, we weren’t expecting them to show much value until their 3rd or 4th year. However, what you end up seeing is that most of them have hit near full fantasy potential by year two.
The one anomaly above is with Tyler Eifert, however that was due to injury in year two, and he then hit stride in his 3rd year (his 2nd year of a full season). This sample shows the cream-of-the crop of tight ends, so let’s look at a more broad group of players. Below is a sample showing the development cycle of the some of the top fantasy TEs of 2018.
Here (above) you’ll continue to see a big jump from these players from their first to second season, and continue to see them more fully develop by year 3 and 4. You may also notice that we omitted Eric Ebron from this list. This is mostly because of what an anomaly he was. Ebron was stuck on a terrible Detroit Lions team for the majority of his career, and then got traded to what was a pass-heavy Indianapolis team that was riddled with injury at the receiving position. His data just doesn’t play well with others because of the surrounding circumstances, and it leaves him a mystery going into 2019.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN?!?
The two main conclusions you should take away from this data are the following:
If you are in a re-draft league, simply don’t bother with taking rookie tight ends.
This is an especially important to note in the 2019 season, as we saw some tight ends go especially early in the NFL draft. Rookies are always sexy and intriguing options, but the odds are on your side to steer away from the tight end position. If you are in a deep-keeper/dynasty league this is obviously not the case, but just be aware that you will be sitting on these players for a year or two before you begin seeing results.
Look at the trends of the tight end that you are targeting
If the tight end you are targeting hasn’t shown an impressive progression from year 1-3, don’t expect a big turn-around in their 4th season. It may instead be time to start looking into those 2nd and 3rd year players who do have potential for a breakout.
Searching for value in the 2nd year Tight Ends
Looking for a potential steal in your 2019 fantasy draft? Look no further than the 2018 draft class. These are the guys who are ready to make that big jump. Even better, because of their low points in 2018, they will likely go later in your draft.
2018 Tight End Draft Class
Take note of the highlighted players above, because those are the ones who show the kind of first year performance that today’s studs had in their inaugural season. Situationally, the clearest to read appears to be Chris Herndon (NYJ). With 74.2 fantasy points, he is ripe to jump to the mid/low 100s. Goedart was a 2nd round pick, so obviously the Eagles loved him enough to take him early despite already having Zach Ertz. The biggest issue there is split time, unless Ertz gets injured. Ian Thomas’ situation is a mirror image of Ertz, where he’ll be battling with Greg Olsen. However, with Olsen at 34 years old and riddled with injuries, the likelihood of Olsen making it through a full season is unlikely. Mark Andrews is the last in the mix, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to imagine him also making a big jump in 2019.
